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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."